Assofond Survey: the slight year-on-year rebound in the third quarter is not enough to reverse the downturn. Zanardi: “Swift action is needed on the implementing rules for the Energy Release scheme and ETS reimbursements”

Milan, 7 November 2025 – Despite a slight improvement in the third quarter, with year-on-year growth reaching +3.9% compared with the same period last year, foundries fear that 2025 will close with a further decline in production. The overall trend over the past four quarters, in fact, does not suggest that year-end figures will match the already highly unsatisfactory levels recorded in 2024. This is highlighted by the latest business survey conducted by the Assofond Study Centre – the Confindustria association representing Italian foundries – covering the period July–September 2025.
“The third quarter confirms what we had already observed in the first part of the year,” notes Assofond President Fabio Zanardi. “At the end of 2024 we reached the lowest point of a demand crisis from which, even today after more than two years, no concrete prospects of recovery are yet visible. The slight year-on-year rebound is merely physiological, as the third quarter of last year performed particularly poorly.”

Energy costs continue to weigh on companies’ competitiveness

While weak demand from almost all major customer sectors has long been a challenge for companies in the industry, it is once again energy costs that undermine the competitiveness of Italian foundries, with prices in Italy remaining significantly higher than in other major European countries. “Italian energy-intensive SMEs,” Zanardi stresses, “find themselves in a truly paradoxical situation: they are too small to fully benefit from the incentives available to large energy-intensive companies, yet too energy-intensive to fall within the categories supported by the ‘Decreto Bollette’ issued last summer. The result? Without immediate action, we are condemned to extinction.
And yet, it would take very little to improve the situation. The Energy Release scheme is nearing completion following approval by the Court of Auditors. But how long will it now take to define the implementing rules and actually activate the mechanism? Swift action is essential. The same urgency applies to reimbursements of indirect ETS costs, which for cast iron foundries represent an indispensable and much-needed lifeline. The €600 million fund has been allocated, but if the application portal is not opened by the end of the year, there is a risk that the funds will not be usable. Furthermore, what has become of the “Energy Decree” intended to eliminate the PSV/TTF differential, which currently adds almost €5/MWh to gas costs? This measure would provide significant relief for non-ferrous metal foundries, the main gas users in our sector. The issue is the proverbial ‘last mile’. But at this pace, it feels like an endless distance – and we are running out of time.”

Production and turnover: overall and sectoral trends
In the third quarter of 2025, trends in both production and turnover were broadly similar: quarter-on-quarter figures show a sharp decline compared with the previous quarter (–12.8% and –10.4%, respectively), largely influenced by the lower number of working days compared with the March–June period. In August, in fact, most companies in the sector suspended production for scheduled annual maintenance. On a year-on-year basis, however, while production stands at +3.9% compared with the same quarter of 2024, turnover reaches +5.2%.
Breaking down the sample into the two main groups (ferrous and non-ferrous foundries) reveals significant differences: the year-on-year trend for ferrous foundries is positive for both production and turnover (+5.7% and +9.3%), whereas non-ferrous foundries remain below parity (–0.4% and –4.3%). For both segments, however, the year-on-year trend does not appear sufficient to allow year-end production and turnover to reach the levels recorded in 2024. Barring a late surge in the fourth quarter, the sector is thus heading towards a fourth consecutive year of declining industrial output, albeit less pronounced than in 2024.

Business confidence
In September, the Act index, which measures overall sector sentiment for the reference period, stood at 53.1 points. The figure therefore remains above the sufficiency threshold (50 points), and the curve over the past six months depicts a broadly flat trend. Short-term expectations, however, are declining: the Six index, which measures companies’ expectations for the following six months, fell by more than six points and, in the latest survey, stands at 52.1. Despite this fluctuation, the trend over the past four months remains at a higher level than in the months preceding the summer.

Read the detailed posts on the quarterly survey:

• Overall report (access restricted to registered users)
• Steel foundries (access restricted to member foundries)
• Cast iron foundries (access restricted to member foundries)
• Non-ferrous metal foundries (access restricted to member foundries)