Despite a moderate short-term rebound, year-on-year figures remain negative amid high energy costs and global uncertainty. Order visibility hits new lows.

Milan, 12 May 2025 – The first quarter of 2025 for the Italian foundry sector saw a moderate increase in both production and turnover compared to the final quarter of 2024. However, this result — warns Assofond’s Research Center, the association representing the sector within Confindustria — should be interpreted as a physiological rebound, primarily due to the higher number of working days compared to the previous quarter, which included the Christmas holidays. Compared to the same quarter of 2024, the trend remains clearly negative.

"The figures for this first quarter of 2025 confirm what we've been sensing for months: the sector appears to have hit bottom, but without showing any concrete signs of recovery," commented Fabio Zanardi, President of Assofond. "Recovery prospects, for now, are driven more by hope than by real, tangible factors. The global uncertainty — tied to economic policies and risks such as the introduction of new international trade barriers — not only leaves room for a further decline but is already leading to a standstill in investment across the sector. To reverse this trend," Zanardi concluded, "it is essential that European and national institutions transform the awareness — which finally seems to be emerging — into concrete measures to support the continent’s industrial value chains."

Production and Turnover: General Data and Sector Dynamics
Production in the first quarter of 2025 increased by +6.4% compared to the previous quarter. This dynamic was almost identical across both sub-sectors: +6.4% for ferrous metal foundries and +6.3% for non-ferrous. Nonetheless, the year-on-year comparison reveals a total decline of -9.5% (-8.5% for ferrous foundries, -11.9% for non-ferrous).
Turnover followed a similar pattern, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of +9.2%. In detail, ferrous foundries recorded +6.6%, and non-ferrous foundries +14.6%. However, annual turnover figures remain negative overall (-8.7%), with -8.2% for ferrous and -9.7% for non-ferrous foundries.

Main Reasons Behind the Short-Term Variations
Among the reasons cited by foundries that reported increased production in the first three months of the year, the most common was the higher number of working days compared to the previous quarter (mentioned by 48.3% of the sample), confirming the rebound as primarily calendar-driven. Nevertheless, 37.9% of the sample also reported an increase in market demand. Regarding turnover, the quarter-on-quarter increase was mainly driven by a rise in shipment volumes.

Confidence Climate and Order Visibility
Order visibility remains very low — well below the threshold of adequacy — and shows no improvement compared to previous quarters. The average visibility is 2.2 months for cast iron, down from 1.3 to 0.8 months for steel, and from 2.7 to 2.5 months for non-ferrous.
This indicator is reflected in mid-term expectations. While the Act Index for March — which measures general sector sentiment — rose above 50 points (53.2), indicating a short-term improvement, the Six Index — measuring expectations for the following six months —, although still above the sufficiency threshold (53.2 points), declined compared to the previous month, which was already slowing since the start of the year. 61.3% of the sample expects stability, while the share of foundries with negative expectations rose to 12.9%, and those anticipating slight improvement decreased to 25.8%.

Cost Trends and Profitability
The profitability outlook remains critical. The trend of declining turnover and production is now coupled with surging energy costs. The PUN (Italian national electricity price) rose by +49.6% year-on-year compared to Q1 2024, significantly increasing overall production costs.
Despite the modest quarter-on-quarter recovery — expected after a particularly tough Q4 2024, marked by prolonged holiday shutdowns — the sector remains in a prolonged phase of stagnation. Negative year-on-year figures have persisted for several periods. The downturn that began in 2024 appears to have halted, but no clear path to recovery is yet in sight.